FIBONACCI PRICE & PATTERN TRADER- COMPLETE BULLETIN FOR COMPLETE TRADERS: 2013

Sunday, 29 December 2013

END OF YEAR ANALYSIS FOR EUR/USD:::STRONG BULLISH TARGETS RESPECTIVELY DEFINED

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD enjoyed the low liquidity to shoot higher, but this was short lived. Retail and manufacturing PMI’s, Spanish Unemployment Change and M3 Money Supply are the main market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events at the year’s end and the beginning of 2014 and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD made the most of low liquidity in holiday markets last week, gaining about 150 points. The pair closed at 1.6476. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing and Construction PMIs. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The pound managed to post sharp gains last week despite strong US numbers. Unemployment claims fell sharply and New Home Sales beat the estimate, but this wasn’t enough to keep the dollar from taking a tumble.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The yen had little to cheer about over Christmas, as USD/JPY jumped over 100 points last week, closing above the 105 level. There are no Japanese releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

It was a busy week for Japanese releases. Consumer spending and manufacturing numbers were weak, but retail sales looked sharp and inflation indicators continue to point upwards. In the US, unemployment claims and housing data late in the week helped the dollar move higher and close the week above the 105 line.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar lost ground for a second week in a row, falling to long term uptrend support. In the first week of the holidays, can it stabilize? Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The announcement about QE tapering in the US gave a boost to the US dollar, and no currency was spared. The big decision overshadowed positive data from New Zealand: the economy grew by 1.4% in Q3, beating predictions of 1.1%. The trade balance figure, which was released ahead of time,
showed a surplus. It is the first such surplus for the month of November in 22 years. Trade with China now tops trade with Australia. Credit card spending also showed strong consumer sentiment,

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD posted modest gains last week, as the pair closed just above the 1.07 line. This marked the first time the pair has closed the trading week above 1.07 in over four years. There are no releases this week, as we begin 2014 on a quiet note. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The only Canadian release this week, GDP, beat the estimate for a third straight month. In the US, strong Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales releases helped the US dollar gain ground late in the week at the expense of the Canadian currency.

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Sunday, 8 December 2013

EUR/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 9TH- 13TH; MARKET PRICE REACHING FOR TECHNICAL RESISTANCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD enjoyed the calm in Europe to push higher. German Trade Balance, Industrial production, as well as the ECOFIN and Eurogroup Meetings are the main highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers awaiting us ahead.

Last week, the ECB left policy unchanged in line with market forecast. The ECB has maintained ultra-low rates ECB President Mario Draghi announced in the press conference that cheap money will continue to flow, and key rates will remain low for an extended period of time. The ECB even marginally upgraded its growth forecast for 2014. Will the Eurozone succeed in enjoying a real recovery? In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations and seemingly enable QE tapering. However, the jury is still out.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

After posting weekly gains for four consecutive weeks, GBP/USD took a break and posted modest losses last week. The pair closed the week at 1.6347. This week’s key release is Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British PMIs were a mix last week, and there were no surprises from the BOE, which kept interest rates and QE levels steady. In the US, Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls looked sharp.

Summary of key events during the week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD was almost unchanged on the week, as the Canadian dollar closed the week at 1.0633. The upcoming week has a very light schedule, with just three releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Both the US and Canada posted sharp employment numbers last week. In the US, Unemployment Claims continued to drop, while Non-Farm Payrolls remained strong and easily beat the estimate. North of the border, Canadian Employment Change rose nicely, climbing to a three-month high.

Summary of key evens during the week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar has been in recovery mode, rising despite the drops seen within its commodity currency peers. The highlight of the upcoming week is the rate decision. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand reported a big jump in its term of trade: 7.5% in the third quarter. The figure joins previous positive figures and enable the stabilization of the pair. In the US, the “to taper or not to taper” question remains intact. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls came out better than expected and provide 5 reasons for QE tapering.

Summary of key events during the week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY posted modest gains last week, as the pair closed at 102.89. The upcoming week is busy, with 10 events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese events were uneventful last week. In the US, employment numbers looked very sharp, led by a strong Non-Farm Payrolls.

A summary of key events during the week

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Manual Traders

Technical analysis is a method for evaluating currency movements by analyzing the data generated by market activity; this data is often historical data such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts will attempt to analyze this data in order to identify patterns that can help them predict future (short-term or long-term) price movements in the currency.

There are several different techniques technical traders use to analyze data. They include moving averages, Fibonacci retracement, trends, resistance and supports, double tops and double bottoms, Bollinger Bands® and the popular MACD.

EURUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 2ND-DEC 6TH; BULLISH TREND CONTINUES TOWARDS TECHNICAL RESISTANCE, TARGET 50% FIBONACCI SEQUENCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD advanced for a third week in a row. As we enter the last month of the year, can it reach new highs? The rate decision is the key event of the week. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Eurozone Flash CPI exceeded expectations rising 0.9%, following 0.7% gain in October. Although the growth rate increased, it remained well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target of 2% for nine consecutive months. The lowest inflation in almost four years registered in October is quite likely the reason behind the sudden ECB rate cut seen in November. However, the 0.9% gain eases fears that the euro zone is headed for deflation. Will the ECB come up with further accommodative measures on its December 5 meeting?

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD rallied for a fourth straight week, gaining over a cent. The pair closed the week at 1.6362. This week’s key releases are the PMIs and the BOE’s QE and Official Bank Rate decisions. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Here is a summary of major events during the week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar was on the back foot for another week, dropping together with its commodity currency peers. Is this the beginning of an avalanche? Indicators related to exports accompany the kiwi this week. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand’s trade balance deficit came out below expectations, at 168 million. Despite the positive surprise, for a second month in a row, the New Zealand dollar traded lower, falling to levels last seen in early September, before the “no taper” surprise.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD posted modest gains, as the Canadian dollar remains under pressure. The pair closed the week above the 1.06 line. The upcoming week has a host of key releases, including the BOC Overnight Rate and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US Unemployment Claims continues to look solid, while Canadian GDP posted a modest gain. Canadian Current Account disappointed, as the deficit rose to a three-month high.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY continues to rally, as the pair gained over a cent last week. The pair closed the week at 102.42. The upcoming week has seven events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

US employment numbers were strong last week, helping boost the US dollar. Japanese inflation indicators looked good, but manufacturing production was well below the estimate.

Summary of key events during the week

Capital Spending: Sunday, 23:50. Capital Spending measures the total value of new business capital expenditures. It is released on a quarterly basis, magnifying its impact. After two straight declines, the indicator posted a flat reading of 0.0% in Q2. The upward trend is expected to continue in Q3, with an estimate of a strong gain of 3.1%.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Monday, 2:30. Kuroda will deliver remarks in Nagoya. Analysts will be listening closely, looking for hints as to changes in the BOJ’s monetary policy.
Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. The Bank of Japan continues to increase its monetary base through the purchase of long-term bonds. The indicator posted a gain of 45.8% in October and a gain of 47.2% is expected for the November release.
Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. This is an important economic indicator, since an increase in employment income should lead to stronger consumer spending and economic growth. The indicator posted a weak gain of 0.1% in October, but this was well above the estimate of -0.5%. The markets will be looking for a stronger gain for the November release.
10-year Bond Auction: Thursday, 3:45. The average yield on 10-year bonds continues to decrease, with the October yield coming in at 0.61%. As a minor event, this release is unlikely to have a major impact on the movement of USD/JPY.
Leading Indicators: Friday, 5:00. This composite index is based on 11 economic indicators, but is a minor event since most of the data has been released previously. The index rose to 109.5% last month, and little change is expected in the upcoming release.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Saturday, 2:00. Kuroda will deliver remarks in Tokyo. A speech which is considered more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Japanese yen.

TECHNICAL BEAM

USD/JPY adamantly refused to risk any bear Fibonacci pattern. This is coming after the pair confirmed the formation of a triangular wave C leg exactly on the 13th of September, 2012. From then up until this very moment, the pair has continued bullish with an average profit target of over +2000pips.

Last week, we envisaged an impending bearish wave i leg which was expected to serve as a bullish propeller. This prediction has been fulfilled and we even expect this bullish pattern to
continue, looking ahead in profit for 103.716.
The random 50% Fibonacci sequence number rest on 105.391 while the 61.8% Fibonacci sequence also stands at 112.399.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING

Thursday, 21 November 2013

CADCHF LONG TERM BULLISH SIGNAL CONFIRMED; PRICE TARGET OF OVER +600PIPS IN SIGHT

TECHNICAL BEAM

After confirming a significant downside wave leg 5 confirmation on 25th of October at exactly 12:00 IronFx GMT; The bulls have in reply, began taking their share of the market price for CADCHF. To confirm the bullish trend however, we had to wait till 20th of November at about 00:00 GMT to confirm an established wave leg Y pattern equating to a Head & Shoulder bullish confirmation signal.

Following the confirmation of the signal for this CADCHF, we now have price target specified using our Fibonacci sequence. as sen bellow

TARGET ONE- 50% Fibonacci number = 0.90342

TARGET TWO- 61.8% Fibonacci number = 0.9150

TARGET THREE 100% Fibonacci number = 0.9533

INABILITY TO RELEASE THIS WEEK ANALYSIS OF THE MAKET FORCES ME TO ANNOUNCE MY PRIVATE BLACKBERRY PIN

DUE TO THE INABILITY OF RELEASING MY ROUTINE BULLETIN FOR THIS WEEK FOLLOWING UNFORESEEN INTERNET CONNECTION ISSUES FROM MY END
I HAVE DECIDED TO RELEASE MY PRIVATE BLACKBERRY PIN OUT OF MY KIND HEARTEDNESS

HOWEVER, I WOULD WANT TO MAINTAIN THAT ONLY QUESTIONS REGARDING FOREX TRADING IDEAS FOLLOWING MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MARKET WOULD BE ENTERTAINED[OUTSIDE SUCH COMMENTS, YOU SHALL RECEIVE NO RESPONSE].

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THANK YOU FOLLOWERS FOR UNDERSTANDING

SPAMMERS ARE WARNED TO KEEP OFF

NZDUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK NOV 18-22ND; DOUBLE BOTTOM BULLISH REBOUNCE

FUNDAMENAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar remained in range in the aftermath of the roller coaster . Quarterly PPI figures are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

After the excellent jobs report seen in the previous week, a disappointment was printed in the retail sales report. The volume of sales rose by only 0.3% and core sales disappointed with a drop. Inflation figures now are important for the next decisions of the RBNZ.

Here is a summary of key events during the week

PPI: Tuesday, 21:45. The producer price index is published in New Zealand only once per quarter, thus making the market impact stronger. As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that 2014 will likely see a rate hike, the moves in prices will help determine the timing. In Q2, PPI Input rose by 0.6%, exactly as expected. This is the main figure that measures prices that manufacturers received. PPI Output rose by 1%.
Credit Card Spending: Thursday, 2:00. Changes in consumers’ mood can be seen in usage of credit cards, which are in wide use in New Zealand. The year on year growth that was reported in September stood on 5.2%, lower than 6.6% seen in August. A similar rise is expected now.
Visitor Arrivals: Thursday, 21:45. New Zealand enjoys a strong tourism sector, so arrivals from overseas have an impact on the wider economy and on the currency. A drop of 1% was seen in September. A rise is now likely in October.

TECHNICAL BEAM

This pair takes a confident bullish turn after making a rebounce at the technical support previously established 5th of November, 2013. The chart above shows a detailed technical outlook for this com this week.

As seen above, an expected wave leg 5 is due for completion following the rebounce of NZDUSD at a key technical support. Market prices are expected to take a complete downside move south-east of the chart after hitting 0.8619.

APOLOGIES FOR POSTING THIS OUTLOOK LATE:: INABILITY DULY AS A RESULT OF POOR INTERNET CONNECTION

HAPPY TRADING

Sunday, 10 November 2013

USDCAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK NOV 11TH-5TH; BEAR MARKET, STEADY.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Canadian dollar had a fairly quiet week, and posted modest gains against the US currency. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0478. This week’s key events include Trade Balance and Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US and Canadian employment data was strong this week, but the unexpectedly sharp NFP release on Friday gave the US dollar a boost and sent USD/CAD briefly above the 1.05 line. Canadian Ivey PMI was strong, but Building Permits was well short of the estimate.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD had a second negative week, losing over 100 pips. Can it stabilize at these levels or continue falling? GDP, employment and inflation data are the main market movers for this week. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB cut the interest rate to 0.25% in its monthly meeting, catching markets by surprise. The weak performance of the euro states, excluding Germany and the overvalued Euro compelled the ECB to cut rates, in an attempt to spur the euro-zone economies. ECB president Mario Draghi also made it clear that he has more “artillery”. EUR/USD fell also on news from the other side of the Atlantic: both GDP and the Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations. We’ll now see how bad the euro-zone situation is.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD bounced back and crossed above the 1.60 level, gaining about one cent last week. The pair closed at 1.6018. This week’s key events include CPI, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British Construction and Services PMIs continued to look sharp, giving the pound a boost. The US dollar made up some ground late in the week as NFPs soared on Friday.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar dipped to new lows but managed to remain stable in a very turbulent week. The big event for the upcoming week is the release of employment data. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected and made contradicting statements: on one hand, it wants to see a lower value for NZD, but on the other hand it sees interest rates rising in 2014 – a hawkish statement. The kiwi wanted to fly higher, but it was also hurt by the relatively hawkish FOMC statement in the US. The central bank in the US did not hint about a change in QE tapering plans. Where will this pair trade next?

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Japanese yen showed some strength last week but ended the week almost unchanged, as USD/JPY closed the week just above the 99 line. There are nine events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese releases were uneventful last week. NFPs soared on Friday, helping the US dollar push higher and close above the 99 line.

EURUSD BEARISH PATTERN SHORT LIVE AFTER MOVING +300 PIPS; WAVE LEG 3 MAY LIKELY RETEST TECHNICAL RESISTANCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD had a terrible week, falling around 300 pips. Is the pair oversold, or does the fall in inflation justify an extension of the fall? The euro is now in the hands of ECB President Mario Draghi and the rate decision becomes even more important that normally. In addition, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and industrial data will also move the common currency. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on much lower ground.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD tumbled last week, as the pair dropped 250 points. GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5922. This week has a host of key events, incuding PMIs, Manufacturing Production and the asset purchase facility and interest rate decisions. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British releases had a tough week, as CBI Realized Sales plunged and Manufacturing PMI missed the estimate. US readings were mixed, but there was some relief in the markets as the all-important Unemployment Claims met expectations.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The yen weakened last week, as USD/JPY gained about 100 points. USD/JPY closed the week at 98.61. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with just five events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The US started out the week with some disappointing releases, but recovered as Unemployment Claims was solid and manufacturing data beat expectations, and the US dollar moved higher.

RISK | REWARD | MONEY MANAGEMENT IN FOREX TRADING

Anyone serious enough about trading would do well to incorporate money management techniques to their trading plan to protect their portfolio.

Nearly all successful traders use a money management strategy along with their regular trading plan, and if you have ever experienced a severe drawdown on your account, you probably do too.

Basically, having safeguards in place to protect your account to remain in business is far better than the alternative. What follows are some general guidelines for money management, which can be incorporated into a trading plan.

Tip #1: Only Trade With Risk Capital

Trading currencies involves taking substantial risks, no matter how you look at it. Because of the free-floating currency market, currency trading has considerably more in common to gambling than investing.

As a result, putting funds at risk which you cannot afford to lose should never even be considered by a responsible forex trader. This includes money needed for key housing expenses such as your mortgage or rent payment, or the weekly food allowance necessary for your or your family's sustenance.

In general, traders do better by only trading forex with funds known as risk capital. Such money has been specifically designated for trading because it is expendable and therefore not needed for the basic essentials of living.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD had an excellent week, breaking decisively to levels last seen in November 2011. Is 1.40 the next target? Or will the common currency take a break now? German retail sales, inflation and employment data, , consumer sentiment in France and Germany and GDP in Spain. Check out these events, on our weekly outlook. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Weak Non-Farm Payrolls in the US provided the trigger needed for the big breakout. If this is what the US can do without a crisis, things will likely look worse in the following months. However, in the old continent not all is well. PMIs couldn’t maintain their recovery and dropped. German business confidence is also weaker and so is inflation. Will the ECB step up its rhetoric and try to weaken the euro?

A summary of major events during the week.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed the week at 1.6161. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

US employment and manufacturing numbers disappointed last week, but the dollar held its ground against the pound.

A Summary of major events during week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY had an uneventful week, as the pair posted modest losses. USD/JPY closed the week at 97.40. This week’s highlight is the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Statement. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The US dollar was broadly weaker last week , as initial optimism over the debt deal quickly faded . The agreement reached in Congress is only for a few months, as the underlying budgetary issues are yet to be resolved.

A summary of events during the week

EURUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD rallied to a new 8 month high, enjoying the poor resolution to the US political crisis. Can the pair break higher? Or is it consolidation time? German Producer prices, German Ifo Business Climate and Manufacturing and services PMIs are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now just under the year-to-date peak.

The Euro strengthened against the US dollar in light of the lingering shutdown, badly affecting US economy. The aversion of the debt ceiling was achieved only at the last moment, and it set new dates for a potential shutdown and default, in early 2014. On this background, the Fed will likely postpone QE tapering and maintain the heavy weight on the dollar. In the meantime ZEW Economic Sentiment continued rising However, the door to new easing is still open, as ECB officials remain worried about tighter credit conditions and falling inflation, as seen again just now. Let’s start:

A Summary of keys event during the week

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar was well prepared for the Fed decision: recent data was positive and so were flows of money into real estate in the small country. When the FOMC announced the NO taper surprise, the New Zealand dollar jumped higher and didn’t really look back.

NZD/USD is over 600 pips above the lows seen early in month. Is it time for consolidation? Or can the year to date high of 0.8676 be challenged soon? Update.

FUDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD reversed directions this week, as the Canadian dollar gained close to one cent. The pair closed at 1.0284. This week’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and the Overnight Rate release.

The Canadian dollar took advantage of a sluggish US dollar, as optimism faded over the fiscal agreement hammered out in Congress. Canadian releases were not impressive, as Manufacturing Sales declined and inflation indicators were subdued.

A summary of weekly events during week.

Last week Fibonacci retracement result moved as predicted

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The pound’s slide continues, as GBP/USD lost about one cent this week. The pair closed at 1.5946, marking the first week the pair has closed below 1.60 since early September. This week’s key events are CPI, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales.

The pound took a mid-week hit, following a poor Manufacturing Production release. As well, the trade deficit was well above the estimate. The US posted a weak consumer confidence release on Friday, but the pound was unable to take advantage.

Updates:

Taking it to the wire: Idea of the Day So we are still waiting for the US to sort itself out.
GBP/USD: Trading the British Retail Sales: British Retail Sales is considered one of the most important consumer spending indicators and is often a market-mover. A reading that is higher...

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY reversed direction last week, as the Japanese yen posted modest gains. The pair closed the week at 97.69. This week’s schedule is very light, with just four releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Trade Balance: Sunday, 23:50. Japan continues to post monthly trade deficits. The August release showed improvement, narrowing to -0.79 trillion yen. This beat the estimate of -0.83 trillion. The markets are bracing for a weak release for September, with an estimate of -1.06 trillion.
All Industries Activities: Monday, 4:30. This indicator looks at the total amount of goods and services purchased by businesses. After posting a decline in August, the indicator rebounded last month with a gain of 0.5%. This beat the estimate of 0.3%. The forecast for the September release stands at 0.3%.

NZDUSD BULLISH MOMENTUM EXHAUSTED; BEAR LIKELY TO LEAD SOON.

TECHNICAL BEAM

Following a third wave leg completion for a highly powered bullish momentum; there are indications showing the pair might just have bitten the much of the bull it can take. This is resulting from the Gann square of nine signal indication for this bull market that begun on the 8th of July, 2013.

USDJPY POSSIBLE FIBONACCI WAVE PATTERN IMMINENT

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Japanese yen lost ground last week, as USD/JPY jumped about 130 points. The pair closed the week at 98.57. This week’s schedule is very light, with just two releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
US consumer sentiment and unemployment claims were weak, but the yen couldn’t take advantage. The shutdown in the US continues, but the dollar was unaffected as the markets seem to be patiently waiting for the politicians in Washington to get their act together.
Updates:

Taking it to the wire: Idea of the Day It felt like we were heading towards an agreement in the US last week, only for...
Video: US closer to the cliff, EUR/USD above support, USD/JPY squeezed: The October 17th debt ceiling deadline is creeping closer. Is market complacency about to end with a storm? In an...
USD/JPY Targets Further Upside – Technical Analysis: Watch out for more upside as USDJPY remains bullish and targeting further gains. As long as it holds above the...
Aussie continues to climb against the USD: It felt like we were heading towards an agreement in the US last week, only for it to fall apart...

USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.

Revised Industrial Production: Tuesday, 4:30. This manufacturing indicator bounced back from a sharp decline in August, posting a solid gain of 3.4% in September. This beat the estimate of 3.4%. It was the best reading from the indicator since January 2012. The markets will be looking for another strong reading this week.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: Friday, 6:35. Kuroda will be speaking at an event in Tokyo. Analysts will be listening closely for any hints as to the BOJ”s future monetary policy, and a speech which is hawkish is bullish for the yen.

TECHNICAL BEAM

A bearish wave pattern is expected to begin formation on this pair. Wave leg C is expected to reach an extreme point at 95.79 after completing its intermediary waves at 97.65 and 98.30 for B and C respectively.
The chart below show a possible move for this pair as described by our calculations.

HAPPY TRADING

EURUSD COMPLETES 31.8% RETRACEMENT; BULLISH TURN IMMINENT

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD traded in range on the US uncertainty and eventually closed the week marginally lower. Will it pick a new direction now? German ZEW Economic Sentiment, industrial and inflation data are the main market movers. Here is an outlook for the market moving events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD that holds above uptrend support so far.
EUR/USD was supported by the US government shutdown and the upcoming debt ceiling deadline, as well as the poor jobless claims reading. Germany posted an unexpectedly strong trade surplus of 15.6 billion in September but Factory Orders dropped by 0.3% while expected to gain 1.2%. Germany is the leading economy in the Eurozone, having a strong impact on market sentiment. Will German economy growth pick-up in the coming week? Let’s start:

EURJPY CLOSE TO ESTABLISHING A NEW HIGH SINCE LATE 2009

TECHNICAL BEAM

This pair may be close to forming new high since it last did in close of 2009 financial trading year. If we go by our calculations, we expect the pair to rally up to complete a wave leg (iii) at 133.87 and further advance to 134.94 where a key resistance is said to be established.

EURGBP ELLIOT WAVE BEARISH LOOK AHEAD

TECHNICAL BEAM

Since Janauary 18th, 2008 when the pair broke high above the ranging price that persisted as far back as 2004; It has continued to advance north of the chart against the Great Britain pounce. After a wave 2 leg completion, we should expect prices to the technical support of 0.8424 and beyond.

An intermediate wave a leg with a price tag of 0.8424 bearish is imminent followed by a 50% fibonacci expansion retracement to 0.8457 before it pattern can be alot better predicted. we expect market prices to continue south-east of the chart to 0.8391.

HAPPY TRADING

AUDCHF STILL BULLISH ON PREDICTED FIBONACCI EXPANSION

Aussie continue to enjoy bullish ride to complete a wave leg C as predicted by fibonacci sequence. This however is not surprising to us following its bullish breakout since early 2009. New highs continue to form on this pair and much more is expected as the australian economy continue to gather momentum.

AUDUSD BULLISH STRENGTH REDUCING; FIBONACCI 62.8% BEARISH RETRACEMENT IMMINENT

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Australian Central Bank’s meeting minutes showed once again that another rate cut is not imminent. This boosted AUD/USD and sent it to the lowest levels since mid June.
However, this 4 month high didn’t hold for too long and the pair retreated back down. Is it the false break before the real one? Or is this failed attempt? Despite the bullishness, here are 3 reasons that point to the latter option as well as the predicted technicals based on fibonacci.

GBPUSD CURRENTLY AIMING 50% FIBONACCI EXTENSION BULLISH TURN

Following my analysis of this pair some six days ago where i predicted its possible slide from a previous retracement. Pattern now indicate the pair is in for its bullish turn as a key support has just be established at 1.5923. This would therefore serve as a temporary key support for the short term after the bullish turn is over and the bear comes in for its share.

EURJPY BEAR MARKET PREDESTINATION

TECHNICAL BEAM

An expected wave C leg is destine to complete its cycle at 130.97.
Also following this scenario is a like support level that would likely come into play if the market finnishes below 130.97. this bearish market is strongly put at 129.84 As seen in the chart below.

EURGBP EXPECTED TO MAKE FURTHER DOWNSID MOVE

TECHNICAL BEAM

Further downside move expected for EURGBP following irregular ranging moves seen last week.
The wave leg (y) has just been completion and this is sure to follow with a slide south-east of the chart.

AUDUSD BEARISH RETRACEMENT FOLLOWS WITH A BULLISH WAVE C LEG COMPLETION WITH TARGET

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

AUD/USD had a solid week, gaining over one cent. The pair closed the week at 0.9435. This week’s highlight is Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar has benefited from the US shutdown, which has hurt the US dollar. As well, the Aussie got a boost from the RBA, which maintained its benchmark interest rate and hinted that it will not be reducing rates in the near future.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it.

AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The Construction Index continues to post readings well below the 50-level, indicating ongoing contraction in the construction industry. The August release came in at 43.7 points and no significant change is expected in the upcoming release.
ANZ Job Advertisements: Tuesday, 00:30. This indicator is an important gauge of activity in the employment sector. The indicator continues to post declines, with the August release coming in at -2.0%. Another decline is expected in the September release.
NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence jumped to 6 points in the previous release, its best showing in over two years. Will the indicator follow suit with another sharp release for September?

USDJPY IN FOR BETTER BULLISH TURN THIS WEEK

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USD/JPY finished the week strongly, as the pair gained slightly over one cent on the week. USD/JPY closed the week at 98.20. This week’s highlights are the Tankan indexes and the BOJ Monetary Policy Statement. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Japanese inflation indicators met their estimates last week. In the US, Unemployment Claims were down slightly, but key manufacturing and housing data posted declines.
Updates:

USD/JPY falls on US government shutdown fears: The yen is certainly enjoying its safe haven status. As negotiations in the US concerning a government shutdown got stuck...
The Sword of Damocles may fall on the US unless a deal on a budget is reached today: Idea of the Day This could be a tricky end of the month. On top of the usual month end...
Investor confidence shaken by political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic and a default threat in the US: A number of political developments over the weekend have shaken investor confidence worldwide, sending global equities sliding as we head...

USDCHF STARTING BULLISH UPSIDE MOVE

TECHNICAL BEAM

Following our bearish prediction of USDCHF and a close wave leg 3 completion for our open trade as seen in the chart.

GOLD RELUCTANT TO MOVE NORTHWARD; BEARISH TURN NOW VISIBLE

TECNICAL BEAM

We expect further downside movement for GOLD after reluctantly deciding to break above the resistance by establishing south spike. Market price closing downward for the week.

GBPUSD ENTERS BEAR MARKET; ASIAN SESSION BULLISH RETRACEMENT EXPECTED

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD continues to move higher and broke through the 1.61 line this week. The pair closed the week at 1.6136. This week’s key events are Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMIs. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The pound continues to shine, although this week’s UK numbers were uneventful. In the US, Unemployment Claims looked sharp, but key manufacturing and housing data disappointed the markets and weighed on the greenback.

Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. An increase in lending reflects stronger consumer confidence and spending. The July reading dropped to 1.5 billion pounds, falling short of the estimate of 1.7 billion. The estimate for August stands at 1.6 billion.
Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. This PMI has been steadily rising and the index has been above the 50-point level, indicating expansion, for the past four releases. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 57.5 points.

EURUSD LOOKING BEARISH ON LONG TERM; SHORT TERM BULLISH MOVE STILL IN SIGHT

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EURUSD reached a new 8 month high on the back of the US government shutdown, but soppted at resistance. Draghi’s speeches, Industrial data and the IMF meeting are the highlights of this week. Check out these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now in a higher range.
The ECB left all rate unchanged postponing new policy moves until the fragile euro zone recovery strengthens. The ECB became concerned with rising market interest rates over the summer, and pledged to keep the benchmark rates at a minimum low for an extended period. And while the central bank remains ready to act with new LTROs, falling inflation is currently not a worry. Draghi’s content message add fuel to the EUR/USD fire, that was lit by the US government shotdown – an unresolved theme dominating the news.
Updates: EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. Euro zone sentiment improved for the first time in more than two years in September a vote of confidence in the Eurozone economy, reaching 6.5 points after minus 4.9 in August signaling the end of recession. The reading beat market forecast for minus 4. A boost in exports and increased spending pulled the euro zone out of recession in the second quarter of 2013. A further boost to 10.9 is expected now.
German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in July to 14.5 billion following 15.8 billion in the previous month as exports weakened. In unadjusted terms, trade surplus decreased slightly to 16.1 billion euros from 16.9 billion euros, amid a rise in imports. Exports to the European Union as a whole edged up by 0.8 percent and exports to the rest of the world were up by 3.6 percent, the statisticians said. A rise to 15.1 billion is expected.
German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 10:00. German factory orders declined in July, down 2.7% following a 5.0% boost in demand by the Paris Air Show a month earlier. Economists expected a small drop of 0.7%. On a yearly base, orders advanced 2%, when adjusted for the number of working days. German economy expanded 0.7% pulling the 17-nation euro area out of its longest-ever recession. Manufacturing expanded and business confidence increased to a 16-month high in August, indicating a solid pick-up in German economy. A pick-up of 1.2% is expected now.
German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. German manufacturing output fell 1.7% in July, following a 2.0% gain in the previous month. However a two-month average suggested that industry in Europe’s largest economy is on the path to recovery. The current drop in production could be related to the previous month, where output boosted 2.0% driven by a high number of public holidays. The general trend indicates growth in manufacturing and significantly stronger in construction. A rise of 1.1% is expected.
French Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:45. French industrial output fell unexpectedly by 0.6% in July after a 7.4% plunge in the previous month, due to lower car production and mineral refining, casting shadow over French recovery in the beginning of the third quarter. The data suggests the economy is still weak after pulling out of recession in the second quarter. A rise of 0.7% is forecasted.
ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. The ECB monthly bulleting released in September revealed that the Euro area has recovered during the Q2 of 2013 and is expected to continue its recovery in the remaining year however, the Euro Zone should continue the reforms, in order to strengthen recovery. The Euro area real GDP, edged up 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013. ECB projected an annual GDP decline of 0.4% in 2013 and an expansion of 1.0% in 2014. ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 13:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in New York where he is likely to discuss the Eurozone recovery and his plans for further easing measures to ensure a speedy recovery. Market volatility is expected. He managed to deflect sensitive political questions in the last statement. What will he say now?

TECHNICAL BEAM

EURUSD continued a bullish trend last week as predicted, climbing as high as 1.3639 after which it drops down to 1.3540. This leaves everyone with the question of whether the Greenback has returned to winniing ways just overnight.
We envisage a long term bearish move for EURUSD as seen in the chart below

However, we expect that EURUSD would climb come open of Asian session on monday before afterward starting strongly the bearish southward move as seen in the chart below.

HAPPY TRADING

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