EURUSD WEEKLY FORECAST:::FIBONACCI BULLISH PRICE TARGET AHEAD

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD fell lower on a Sunday gap and could never retake the previous levels. Will the attempts to talk down the euro succeed? PMIS and a speech from ECB president Mario Draghi are the key events. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Draghi made his mark once again: he tied further monetary stimulus to the value of the euro. His weekend comments opened a gap lower that was never closed. Pressure on the euro also came from the miss in the German ZEW figure and also from the downwards revision of core CPI for March, which is now at its lowest level post-crisis level. Data in the US was mostly positive, with an encouraging jobless claims figure and better than expected retail sales, although more evidence is needed to convince everybody in the spring bounce theory.

Updates:

• Apr 21, 15:50: Markets in holiday mood: Implied currency volatility levels across the major pairs have dropped to lows not seen since 2007, and equity markets are...
• Apr 21, 10:04: EUR/USD April 21 – Drifting higher in slow holiday trade: EUR/USD started off the trading week with a slow grind higher. Most markets are on a long Easter holiday. The tension...
• Apr 21, 8:10: EURUSD: Faces Bear Threats After the Easter Break: EURUSD: With the pair closing lower the past week, a continuation of that weakness is envisaged in the new week....

1. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00.  Consumer confidence in the euro zone improved beyond expectations in March, reaching minus 9 points after posting minus 12.7 points in February. Economists expected a more modest advance to minus 12 points. The positive trend indicates the euro-area is on a recovery path. No change is expected this time.
2. Manufacturing and services PMIs: Wednesday. The Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors mildly declined in Match. The Manufacturing sector dropped to 53 following 53.2 registered in February and the services sector declined by 0.2 points to 52.4. However, both figures remained in expansion territory with a continuous rise in the services sector activity, indicating business expansion. Meanwhile, business activity in France’s manufacturing sector edged up to 51.9 in March, from 49.7 in February indicating expansion. The release was stronger than the 49.8 anticipated by analysts. Likewise, the Services sector climbed to 51.4, from 47.2 in February, posting the highest reading in 26 months, beating expectations for a 47.8 reading. Improving conditions domestically and abroad contributed to expansion. In Germany, both manufacturing and services activity weakened in March compared to February, The manufacturing sector declined to 53.8, form 54.8 in the previous month and the services, ticked down slightly to 54.0, compared to 55.9 in the previous month Both readings came in below market consensus. French manufacturing sector is expected to reach 51.9 and services are expected to remain unchanged at 51.5. German manufacturing is predicted to rise to 53.9 and the services sector is expected to advance to 53.5. The Eurozone Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53 points while the services sector is expected to rise to 52.7  points.
3.  German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business sentiment, edged down to 110.7 in March following four months of increases. The decline was related to worries from EU sanctions on Russia and low inflation. The current conditions gauge edged up to 115.2 from a prior 114.4, compared to forecast of 114.5. The expectations measure retreated to 106.4 from a prior of 108.3, lower than projection of 107.7. Nevertheless, the German government upgraded its growth forecast by 0.3% to 1.9% expansion this year after a strong start of 2014. Business sentiment is expected to decline to decline to 110.5.
4. Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 10:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at a conference in Amsterdam. He may comment on the low inflation in the Eurozone. Market volatility is expected.  We have seen his heavy hand on the euro and we might see this happen again
5. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 14:00. Belgian business confidence, dropped in March to minus 4.4 following minus 4 posted in the previous month, amid pessimism regarding the service sector activity. Sentiment in manufacturing was marginally lower. Belgian business confidence is expected to improve further to minus 2.3.

TECHNICAL BEAM 
  
 
 Following a slightly higher posted gains of the Euro against the US Greenback just last week and the effort to talk down the euro: it is however anticipated from Fibonacci and Elliot wave analysis, this pair could go as far higher above the fibonacci target.
The expected Fibonacci target is recorded at 1.4280 which is just 11% above the 100% Fibonacci sequence. This intermediate wave iii leg is therefore expected to be completed immediately after hiting the 1.400 round number.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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