USDCAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK NOV 11TH-5TH; BEAR MARKET, STEADY.

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Canadian dollar had a fairly quiet week, and posted modest gains against the US currency. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0478. This week’s key events include Trade Balance and Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US and Canadian employment data was strong this week, but the unexpectedly sharp NFP release on Friday gave the US dollar a boost and sent USD/CAD briefly above the 1.05 line. Canadian Ivey PMI was strong, but Building Permits was well short of the estimate.

A summary of key events during the week

1. Trade Balance: Thursday, 13:30. Canada continues to post monthly trade deficits. The September deficit widened to -1.3 billion dollars, up from -0.9 billion the previous month. This was well above the estimate of -0.7 billion and marked the largest deficit in 2013. The markets are expecting another weak reading in October, with the estimate standing at -1.2 billion.
2. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. The New Housing Price Index is an important gauge of activity in the Canadian housing market. The index has been posting very slight gains in recent months and came in at 0.1% in September. This was short of the forecast of 0.3%. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 0.2%
3. BOC Review: Thursday, 15:30. This report is issued each quarter and includes articles related to the economy and central banking. As a minor release, it is unlikely to have much impact on the movement of USD/CAD.
4. Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 13:30. The week wraps up with this Manufacturing Sales, a key release. The indicator tends to fluctuate and posted a slight decline of 0.2% after a sharp gain of 1.7% the month before. The estimate for October stands at 0.3%.

TECHNICAL BEAM

This pair is perhaps one of the very few pairs unaffected by NFP's data release as it continues unsteady against the Greenback. USDCAD continues the progress of a wave II leg south-east of the chart.

Hence, we expect market prices to exceed the technical support previously recorded at 1.0282; as well as torching the 100% Fibonacci sequence number at 1.0206 to complete a major wave leg 2.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING