NZDUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK NOV 11TH-15TH; BULLISH SENTIMENTS INCREASING

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar dipped to new lows but managed to remain stable in a very turbulent week. The big event for the upcoming week is the release of employment data. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected and made contradicting statements: on one hand, it wants to see a lower value for NZD, but on the other hand it sees interest rates rising in 2014 – a hawkish statement. The kiwi wanted to fly higher, but it was also hurt by the relatively hawkish FOMC statement in the US. The central bank in the US did not hint about a change in QE tapering plans. Where will this pair trade next?

Updates:

• NZD/USD back to uptrend channel on excellent job figures: The employment situation in New Zealand, no matter how you look at it, and the improvement also exceeded expectations. The...
• Strong Non-Farm Payrolls +204K – dollar higher: US Non-Farm Payrolls for October 2013 rose by 204K, much more than expected. In addition, revisions added quite a few...

A summary of major events during the week

1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Monday, 00:00. New Zealand relies on exports of commodities, mainly agricultural ones, for its economy. Rises in prices aid New Zealand. A rise of 0.9% was reported last month, and a more moderate rise is expected now.
2. Employment data: Monday, 21:45. Contrary to most developed economies, New Zealand releases employment data only once per quarter, making this data valuable for a long period of time. The level of employment rose by 0.4% in Q2, lower than the strong gain in Q1. A stronger growth in jobs is likely now. The unemployment rate disappointed with a rise to 6.4% and no change is likely in Q3. Another data point is the Labor Cost Index, which rose by 0.4% in Q2. All in all, this is a healthy job market.
3. RENZ House Price Index: Thursday, 21:00. Prices of homes have a strong impact on the New Zealand dollar, as foreign investment pours into this sector, and causes fears of a bubble. A rise of 0.8% was recorded in September. A similar number is expected in October.

TECHNICAL BEAM

 

Last week our technical analysis for this pair trended bullishness that persisted up till the release of the NFP fundamental news data that consequently powered USD against major currencies around the world. This week follows again with a more likely bullish continuation wave IV leg expected to hit a high of 0.8558.

On this premises therefore, we expect a formation of higher highs market prices for NZDUSD following our chart analysis.

Hence, all conditions met for this pair, bullish sentiments may likely continue to lead bearish patterns for a price above the technical resistance as seen in the chart above.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING