USDCAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 2ND-DEC 6TH; BULLISHNESS ON THE INCREASE AS FIBONACCI TARGET ARE N OW DEFINED

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD posted modest gains, as the Canadian dollar remains under pressure. The pair closed the week above the 1.06 line. The upcoming week has a host of key releases, including the BOC Overnight Rate and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US Unemployment Claims continues to look solid, while Canadian GDP posted a modest gain. Canadian  Current Account disappointed, as the deficit rose to a three-month high.

  

Here is a summary of key events during the week 

1. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30.  Trade Balance is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners need to purchase Canadian dollars in order to buy Canadian exports. Canada continues to post monthly deficits, although last month’s deficit narrowed to -0.4 billion, dollars, down from -1.3 billion in October. The estimate for this month stands at -0.7 billion.
2. BOC Overnight Rate: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate has been pegged at 1.00% for over two years, and no change is expected to this month’s level. The Bank will announce the new rate its Rate Statement.
3. Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. Building Permits tends to show sharp fluctuations, which often leads to estimates which are widely off the mark. After a huge decline in September, the indicator bounced back with a modest gain of 1.7% in October. However, this was well short of the estimate of 7.8%. The forecast for the upcoming release stands at 2.4%.
4. Ivey PMI: Thursday, 15:00. This key index shot up to 62.8 points in October, up from 51.9 the month before. This easily beat the estimate of 54.7 points. Another strong reading is expected in November, with an estimate of 60.2 points. Will the indicator repeat with a higher reading than expected?
5. Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. Employment Change is one of the most important indicators and can have a major impact on USD/CAD. The indicator has posted three straight gains, and last month’s figure of 13.2 thousand beat the estimate of 12.7. The markets are expecting a weaker gain for October, with an estimate of 7.6 thousand. The Unemployment Rate of 6.9% is expected to edge upwards to 7.0%.
6. Labor Productivity: Friday, 13:30. This indicator is closely linked to inflation and is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The estimate for the November reading stands at 0.5%, the same as the gain which was recorded in October.

 

TECHNICAL BEAM

As forecasted early last week, USD/CAD continue establishing higher high market price weekin-weekout. The U.S Greenback has substantially enjoyed a  smooth bullish ride against the Canadian dollar. Technically, the pair remain bullish for this week following last week's offset.
However, even though we expect this pair bullish reign; we may likely see a wave 4 leg retracement to 1.05669 early this week before eventually stepping up the bullish biasness.
Price target for the hourly Fibonacci pattern is recorded at 1.08061. Looking forward for this pair, we observe the following
                    Fibonacci sequence 23.6 - 1.07087
                                                     38.2% - 1.17508
                                                        50% - 1.25817

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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