NZD/USD WEEKLY FORECAST:::STILL ON THE BULLISH RETRACEMENT TO COMPLETE A FIBONACCI SEQUENCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar corrected the big gains and closed lower after the disappointing CPI. Is it a change of course or a pause? The rate decision is the main event for this week. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The level of inflation in New Zealand did not rise as expected and this hurt the kiwi. The big question is: Will the RBNZ slow down the pace of rate hikes? We will get some answers this week.
Updates:

1. Visitor Arrivals: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand enjoys a strong tourism sector, making visitor arrivals an important indicator for the whole economy. After a rise of 2.2% in February, a somewhat slower rise is likely for March.
2. Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 3:00. As retail sales numbers are published only once per quarter, this monthly indicator of consumption gives a good picture. Year over year spending grew 5.9% in February. A stronger growth rate is expected for March.
3. Rate decision:  Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand began the tightening cycle in March with a hike from 2.50% to 2.75%. It then made it clear that this is only the beginning and that rates would rise higher and faster. The RBNZ is expected to announce a second rate hike in this cycle, of 0.25% to 3% but could counter this with a softer statement, giving weight to the weaker inflation data. This could hint a pause in the next meeting and a more gradual rise all in all. Every word in the statement will be assessed to determine the next direction of NZD.

TECHNICAL BEAM
 
 This pair surprisingly closed lower after posting big gains during last week trading sessions. However, further upside positions are anticipated by elliot wave and fibonacci analysis as the bullish price target is expected to hit a fibonacci target of 0.8938.
This fibonacci target is expected to complete an intermediate wave c leg within a major wave Y leg.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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