USDJPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK NOV 11TH-15TH; MARKET PRICE STILL LOOKING BEARISH

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Japanese yen showed some strength last week but ended the week almost unchanged, as USD/JPY closed the week just above the 99 line. There are nine events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

 Japanese releases were uneventful last week. NFPs soared on Friday, helping the US dollar push higher and close above the 99 line.

Here is a summary of major events during the week 

1. Current Account: Monday, 23:50. Current Account has looked steady, with the past two readings around 0.35 trillion yen. The markets are anticipating a weak release in October, with an estimate of -0.10 trillion. If the indicator does fall below the zero level, it would mark the first decline since October 2012.
2. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This indicator continues to post readings above the 50-point level, indicating optimism about the economy. The previous release came in at 52.8 points and the estimate for October stands at 54.2 points.
3. Tertiary Industry Activity: Monday, 23:50. This important manufacturing indicator posted a gain of 0.7% last month, ending a slide of two straight declines. The markets are expecting a weak gain of 0.2% for the upcoming release.
4. 30-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The yield at the October auction was somewhat lower than previous releases coming in at 1.63%, compared to 1.80% in September. Will the yield bounce back up this month?
5. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 5:00. Consumer Confidence is an important indicator, as improved consumer confidence usually translates into increased consumer spending. The indicator improved to 45.4 points in September, a four-month high.
6. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. This manufacturing indicator continues to post declines, pointing to trouble in the manufacturing sector. The indicator posted a decline of 6.3% in September.
7. Core Machinery Orders: Tuesday, 23:50. Core Machinery Orders tends to show a lot of fluctuation, leading to estimates that are often off the mark. The previous release posted an excellent gain of 5.4%, well above the estimate of 2.9%. The markets are bracing for a downward turn in October, with an estimate of -1.8%.
8. Preliminary GDP: Wednesday, 23:50. GDP, released on a quarterly basis, provides a gauge of the health and direction of the Japanese economy and should be treated as a market-mover. The indicator psoted a gain of 0.6% in Q2, falling short of the estimate of 0.9%. The markets are expecting a weaker reading in Q3, with a forecast of 0.4%.
9. Revised Industrial Production: Thursday, 4:30. This manufacturing indicator tends to fluctuate, but market estimates have been quite accurate. The September reading came in at -0.9%, but the markets are expecting a sharp improvement in October, with an estimate of a 1.5% gain.

TECHNICAL BEAM 

 

This pair almost closed flat last week after the Greenback after being affected posiitive following the release of NFP data. However, the pair is still expected to complete a wave leg <y> up to the technical support at 97.04. Last week our prediction of the bearish move was somewhat interrupted by a fundamental news release. Hence, great care should be taken as always even though we expet market to move in the anticipated direction.

All things being equal, we expect a general bearish price behavior for USDJPY. 

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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