GBP/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 9TH- 13TH; IMMINENT BEARISH MARKET SET TO BEGIN AFTER RANGE BOUNCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

After posting weekly gains for four consecutive weeks, GBP/USD took a break and posted modest losses last week. The pair closed the week at 1.6347. This week’s key release is Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British PMIs were a mix last week, and there were no surprises from the BOE, which kept interest rates and QE levels steady. In the US, Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls looked sharp.

Summary of key events during the week

1. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Monday, 17:15. Carney will deliver remarks at the Economic Club in New York. With the BOE maintaining its QE and interest levels at last week’s meeting, analysts will be looking for clues as to the Bank’s future monetary policy.
2. RICS House Price Balance: Tuesday, 00:01. This indicator is closely linked to housing inflation, and the indicator has been steadily increasing. The index hit 57% last month, and the markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 59%.
3. Manufacturing Production: Tuesday, 9:30. Manufacturing Production is the key event of the week. The indicator posted a gain of 1.2% last month, matching the forecast. The markets are expecting a downturn in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 0.4%.
4. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 9:30. Trade Balance is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase pounds to pay for British exports. The trade deficit rose to -9.8 billion pounds in October, higher than the estimate of -9.1 billion. The markets are expecting an improvement in the November release, with an estimate of -9.1 billion.
5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 15:00. This indicator, which is released monthly, helps analysts track GDP, which is released every quarter. The indicator has been losing ground and dropped to 0.7% in October. Will the indicator reverse directions and move higher in the November release?
6. External BOE MPC Member Martin Weale: Wednesday, 13:00. Weale will speak at an event in London. Analysts will be listening for clues as to the BOE’s future monetary policy.
7. CB Leading Index: Thursday, 10:00. This release is issued annually. The statement looks at the economic outlook in the UK and previews the government’s budget for the coming year.
8. BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks: Friday, 12:30. Dale will speak at an event in Essex. Remarks that are more hawkish than expected are bullish for the pound.

 TECHNICAL BEAM

 

Following a week of busy events in involving figures and speeches, GBP/USD now stands at the point of bullish exhaustion to start counting bearish wave patterns. Last week we saw how the pair alternatively began a south-east move on our live chart after breaking a technical resistance we earlier predicted.

This week however, despite the reign reign yet in sight, we should expect market price for this pair to range towards the in initially recorded wave 1 leg before breaking below the wave 2 leg for a bearish future price forecast.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING