NZDUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 9TH- 13TH; MARKET PRICE FIRES UP TOWARDS TECHNICAL RESISTANCE

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar has been in recovery mode, rising despite the drops seen within its commodity currency peers. The highlight of the upcoming week is the rate decision. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand reported a big jump in its term of trade: 7.5% in the third quarter. The figure joins previous positive figures and enable the stabilization of the pair. In the US, the “to taper or not to taper” question remains intact. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls came out better than expected and provide 5 reasons for QE tapering.

Summary of key events during the week

1. Manufacturing Sales: Sunday, 21:45. As the trading week begins, this quarterly indicator will have the chance to impact the kiwi on this volume. After a drop of 2% in the previous quarter, a rise is likely now.
2. Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the relatively low interest rate of 2.50% since the March 2011 cut. No change is expected now. The accompanying statement will have a strong impact. On one hand, the RBNZ wants a weak New Zealand dollar to support exports and tourism. On the other hand, the cheap price of money could blow a bubble in the housing market. Some speculate that the central bank will raise rates as early as January. We might get hints about the timing of a rate hike in 2014, something that the RBNZ already made public.
3. FPI: Wednesday, 21:45. As an exporter of food, prices have a strong impact on the economy and on the currency. After a drop of 1% last month, a small tick higher is likely.
4. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 21:30. This purchasing managers’ index has shown stable growth since December 2012. It is expected to advance from the 55.7 score seen in October. 50 points separate growth from contraction

TECHNICAL BEAM

 

Last week we eventfully saw  a bounce off the broken technical support for a bullish retracement towards a technical resistance at 0.8513. This bullish scenario is not far-fetched from the gap up recorded during the opening of the Asian session.

All road  now leads to complete a wave b intermediate leg which should eventually assist in continuing the bullish reign. For now, no Fibonacci target are design while we remain bullish on the pair.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING