GBPUSD WEEKLY FORECAST:::RIDING THE WAVE 3 LEG ON A STRONG BULLISH BIAS

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD continued to climb against the US dollar last week. The pair posted modest gains, closing at 1.6782. This week’s highlight is Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The pound got some help from solid UK employment numbers, as Claimant Count Change posted another solid decline and the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell below 7.0%. In the US, Unemployment Claims beat the estimate and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to its highest level since last September.
Updates:

1. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. Analysts closely monitor the voting breakdown of the MPC vote on QE, which is expected to be a unanimous 9-0 decision. A non-unanimous vote indicates some dissension by policymakers as to the desirable QE level.
2. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. This decision is also expected to be a unanimous decision. A split vote would likely feed speculation about a rate hike by the BOE, which could result in the pound moving higher.
3. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Wednesday, 8:30. The indicator has posted just one surplus since August, although the last reading of GBP7.5 billion was a smaller surplus than expected. The markets are expecting the deficit to bounce higher, with the March estimate standing at GBP8.7 billion.
4. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Wednesday, 10:00. This index is based on a survey of manufacturers and is an important gauge of the health of the UK manufacturing sector. The previous reading improved to 6 points, edging past the estimate of 5 points and marking a three-month high. Will the upward trend continue in the upcoming release?
5. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 10:00. Realized Sales is an important consumer spending indicator, based on a survey of wholesalers and retailers. The indicator tends to show sharp fluctuations, making accurate market forecasts difficult. The February reading dropped to 13 points, way off the estimate of 30. The markets are anticipating some improvement in the March release, with the estimate standing at 18 points.
6. Retail Sales: Friday, 8:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending and traders should keep a close eye on this market-mover. The indicator has been showing some strong movement in both directions. The previous reading registered a strong gain of 1.7%, crushing the estimate of 0.5%. However, the markets are bracing for a reading of -0.4% in March. Will the indicator repeat and beat the prediction?
7. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Friday, 8:30. This indicator is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector as well as the strength of consumer spending. The previous reading dipped to 47.6 thousand, falling short of the estimate of 50.0 thousand. The markets are anticipating a stronger reading in March, with an estimate of 48.9 thousand.

TECHNICAL BEAM


 
 The Great britain pounds has relentlessly continued to climb against the U.S Greenback following modest gains recorded last week. The technical gauges indicate market price would continue north-east of the chart for some considerable period of time.
The Fibonacci target for this pair is put at 1.7388, consequently following the completion of the wave 3 leg.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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