NZDUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK COME DEC 2ND-DEC 6TH; TECHNICAL SUPPORT BROKEN:::POSSIBLY TARGETING 38.2% FIBONACCI SEQUENCE AFTER BULLISH INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 LEG RETRACEMENT

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar was on the back foot for another week, dropping together with its commodity currency peers. Is this the beginning of an avalanche? Indicators related to exports accompany the kiwi this week. Here is an outlook for the events moving the kiwi, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand’s trade balance deficit came out below expectations, at 168 million. Despite the positive surprise, for a second month in a row, the New Zealand dollar traded lower, falling to levels last seen in early September, before the “no taper” surprise.

A Summary of key events during the week

1. Overseas Trade Index: Sunday, 21:45. Just as the trading week starts, New Zealand releases this index of services and goods traded internationally. In Q1 and Q2, the rise exceeded expectations, especially in Q2 with a rise of 4.9%. A more moderate rise is likely now.
2. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 00:00. As an exporter of commodities, mostly food, New Zealand relies on prices. The rise of 1.3% seen in October will probably be seen also in November.

 

TECHNICAL BEAM

    

Last week we predicted this pair would bounce off a technical support which would push prices upside for the week. However, this has not turned out quite positive as market price rallied breaking the below the daily support.
Following this event therefore, this week is likely to take another dimension of Fibonacci pattern. Market prices is expected to continue bearish; subsequently searching for a price in the order of the Fibonacci sequence set to complete a wave leg D.
                     Fibonacci sequence 23.6% - 0.76685
                                                     38.2% - 0.69598
                                                        50% - 0.63758

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

HAPPY TRADING