USD/JPY WEEKLY ANALYSIS:::WEAK BEARISH MARKET IMMINENT

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Japanese yen retreated as the US dollar enjoyed wide gains across the board. Will the pair make a meaningful break out of the range? Inflation figures are the highlights of the week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
BOJ governor Kuroda made it clear that monetary stimulus will continue. The question remains: will the central bank introduce a new blitz to counter the sales tax hike effect? The level of inflation will make a difference. In the US, data has been generally positive, with better than expected jobless claims as well as accelerated retail sales. Let’s start.
Updates:

• Apr 21, 15:50: Markets in holiday mood: Implied currency volatility levels across the major pairs have dropped to lows not seen since 2007, and equity markets are...

1. Trade Balance: Sunday, 23:50. Japan is suffering from a trade deficit that has its roots in the natural disaster of March 2011. The need to import energy in order to compensate for the lower power production of nuclear energy weighs. In February, Japan saw an adjusted deficit of 1.133 trillion yen and a total deficit of around 800 billion. Similar numbers are expected now. Both exports and imports grew nicely.
2. Leading Economic Index: Tuesday, 5:00. This compound indicator, comprised of 12 internal ones has been on the rise and stood on 113.1 points in January. A slight drop is expected for February.
3. CSPI: Wednesday, 23:50. The corporate service price index serves as another measure of inflation. After rising by 0.7% in February, a smaller rise is likely in March.
4. Foreign bond investment: Wednesday, 23:50. Investment in Japanese bonds is a volatile number, but can still move markets. After a positive number of 115 billion yen, a negative figure is expected now.
5. Inflation data: Thursday, 23:30. Japan publishes a wide array of inflation figures. The national y/y CPI stood on 1.5% in February and is expected to move higher. Core CPI is at 0.8% and will likely edge up towards 1%. The Tokyo CPI is already for April and may have a stronger effect. CPI stood on 1.3% and core CPI at 0.4% in the Japanese capital. Also note the ex-Fresh food numbers if they surprise.
6. All Industries Activity: Friday, 4:30. In January, this minor indicator surprised with a rise of 1%, standing out from previous smaller moves. A more moderate rise is expected now in the value of products and services bought by businesses.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The US Greenback continues enjoying strong gains against the weakness of the Japanese yen. Still fluctuating within a wide channel expected to hit 100.78 or even below.
The wave pattern expected to complete a 50% Fibonacci sequence is somewhere around the 98.63 price range. further downside may however ensue but no strong signal has yet emerged.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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