USDJPY WEEKLY FORCAST:::MARKET PRICE UNDECIDEDLY LOOKING BULLISH

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The Japanese yen showed some strength late in the week, and gained over two cents last week. The pair closed at the 102 line. The upcoming week has just eight releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Japanese events were uneventful, as the BOJ held course with its monetary scheme. The yen posted strong gains late in the week, taking advantage of a disappointing US Existing Home Sales, which dropped for the fourth straight month.
 

1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Sunday, 23:50. The minutes  provide a detailed record of the previous BOJ policy meeting. At the meeting, the Bank indicated that it was holding steady with its aggressive monetary policy. Analysts will be looking for differences of opinion amongst policymakers at the meeting.
2. Trade Balance: Sunday, 23:50. Trade Balance and currency demand are closely linked because foreigners need to purchase the domestic currency to pay for Japanese exports. Japan continues to post trade deficits and the past three have been marked by deficits which were higher than the estimates. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of -1.33 trillion.
3. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 23:50. Retail Sales is the most important consumer spending indicator and should be treated as a market-mover. The indicator shot up in November, posting a gain of 4.0%, well above the estimate of 2.9%. The estimate for the December release stands at 3.9%. Will the indicator repeat and beat the prediction?
4. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 23:15.  This index continues to move higher and has been in expansion mode for about a year, with readings above the 50-point level. The markets are hoping that the upward trend continues in the December release.
5. Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. This important consumer spending indicator has been inconsistent, making accurate forecasts difficult. The indicator posted a weak gain of 0.2% in November, well off the estimate of 1.9%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 1.3%.
6. Tokyo Core CPI: Thursday, 23:30. This is the most important inflation indicator. The index has been rising in recent readings, hitting 0.7% in the previous release. However, this is well below the BOJ inflation target of 2.0%. The estimate for the upcoming release is unchanged, at 0.7%.
7. Preliminary Industrial Production: Thursday, 23:50. This manufacturing indicator has taken dropped sharply in recent readings, posting a weak gain of 0.1% in November. The estimate stood at 0.6%. The markets are expecting much better news from the December release, with the estimate standing at 1.5%.
8. Housing Starts: Friday, 5:00. This minor release looked sharp last month, posting a gain of 14.1%. This crushed the estimate of 9.5%. Another strong reading is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 13.9%.

TECHNICAL BEAM




 

 After showing a somewhat bullish strength amidst uncompromising data release that did not meet analyst expectations. we envisage a likely bullish scenerio come this week even  though market prices tends to be undecided.

The wave 4 leg happens to be completed and might eventually take price direction n orth-east of the chart. price target currently stands at 105.536 exactly 1.00% of the Fibonacci number.

NOTE: Price predictions produced by FibonacciPrice&PatternTrader may be affected by unforeseen events like hurricane, earth quake, flood and other natural disasters consequently changing price patterns already predicted. Hence we advice strict adherence to money management techniques.

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