EURUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK; OVER +1400PIPS IMMINENT

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD had an excellent week, breaking decisively to levels last seen in November 2011. Is 1.40 the next target? Or will the common currency take a break now? German retail sales, inflation and employment data, , consumer sentiment in France and Germany and GDP in Spain. Check out these events, on our weekly outlook. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Weak Non-Farm Payrolls in the US provided the trigger needed for the big breakout. If this is what the US can do without a crisis, things will likely look worse in the following months. However, in the old continent not all is well. PMIs couldn’t maintain their recovery and dropped. German business confidence is also weaker and so is inflation. Will the ECB step up its rhetoric and try to weaken the euro?

A summary of major events during the week.

GBPUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK; OVER +1700PIPS PROFIT TARGET

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

GBP/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed the week at 1.6161. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

US employment and manufacturing numbers disappointed last week, but the dollar held its ground against the pound.

A Summary of major events during week

USDJPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK; OVER +500PIPS PROFIT FORECAST

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY had an uneventful week, as the pair posted modest losses. USD/JPY closed the week at 97.40. This week’s highlight is the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Statement. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The US dollar was broadly weaker last week , as initial optimism over the debt deal quickly faded . The agreement reached in Congress is only for a few months, as the underlying budgetary issues are yet to be resolved.

A summary of events during the week

EURUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

EUR/USD rallied to a new 8 month high, enjoying the poor resolution to the US political crisis. Can the pair break higher? Or is it consolidation time? German Producer prices, German Ifo Business Climate and Manufacturing and services PMIs are the highlights of this week.  Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now just under the year-to-date peak.

The Euro strengthened against the US dollar in light of the lingering shutdown, badly affecting US economy. The aversion of the debt ceiling was achieved only at the last moment, and it set new dates for a potential shutdown and default, in early 2014. On this background, the Fed will likely postpone QE tapering and maintain the heavy weight on the dollar. In the meantime ZEW Economic Sentiment continued rising  However, the door to new easing is still open, as ECB officials remain worried about tighter credit conditions and falling inflation, as seen again just now. Let’s start:

A Summary of keys event during the week

NZDUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The New Zealand dollar was well prepared for the Fed decision: recent data was positive and so were flows of money into real estate in the small country. When the FOMC announced the NO taper surprise, the New Zealand dollar jumped higher and didn’t really look back.

NZD/USD is over 600 pips above the lows seen early in month. Is it time for consolidation? Or can the year to date high of 0.8676 be challenged soon? Update.

USDCAD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

FUDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/CAD reversed directions this week, as the Canadian dollar gained close to one cent. The pair closed at 1.0284. This week’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and the Overnight Rate release. 

The Canadian dollar took advantage of a sluggish US dollar, as optimism faded over the fiscal agreement hammered out in Congress. Canadian releases were not impressive, as Manufacturing Sales declined and inflation indicators were subdued.

A summary of weekly events during week.

GBPUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Last week Fibonacci  retracement result moved as predicted

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

The pound’s slide continues, as GBP/USD lost about one cent this week. The pair closed at 1.5946, marking the first week the pair has closed below 1.60 since early September. This week’s key events are CPI, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales. 

The pound took a mid-week hit, following a poor Manufacturing Production release. As well, the trade deficit was well above the estimate. The US posted a weak consumer confidence release on Friday, but the pound was unable to take advantage.

Updates:

• Taking it to the wire: Idea of the Day So we are still waiting for the US to sort itself out.
• GBP/USD: Trading the British Retail Sales: British Retail Sales is considered one of the most important consumer spending indicators and is often a market-mover. A reading that is higher...

USDJPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

FUNDAMENTAL BEAM

USD/JPY reversed direction last week, as the Japanese yen posted modest gains. The pair closed the week at 97.69. This week’s schedule is very light, with just four releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The US dollar was broadly weaker last week , as initial optimism over the debt deal quickly faded . The agreement reached in Congress is only for a few months, as the underlying budgetary issues are yet to be resolved.
A summary of major events surroundng this currency pair

1. Trade Balance: Sunday, 23:50. Japan continues to post monthly trade deficits. The August release showed improvement, narrowing to -0.79 trillion yen. This beat the estimate of -0.83 trillion. The markets are bracing for a weak release for September, with an estimate of -1.06 trillion.
2. All Industries Activities: Monday, 4:30. This indicator looks at the total amount of goods and services purchased by businesses. After posting a decline in August, the indicator rebounded last month with a gain of 0.5%. This beat the estimate of 0.3%. The forecast for the September release stands at 0.3%.